cdnpoli #rcaf #gripen #F-35

Gripen is not as good as F35. For one specific reason; and it’s a reason that needs to be kept in mind. The F35 can be in 3 places at once. That’s the “big deal” of 5th Gen air-dominance aircraft (AC).

Unless you are going to spend significant ISR resources counting the leaves / lands of F35s from 3 different Areas of Responsibility (AOR) — East, Central and West — then you don’t know where a given F35 or two are. Which means, you have to do all or operational planning based on the idea that an F35 will intercept you and fire on you before you realize it’s there.

That’s what “Stealth” gives any country that owns the F35. Deterrence by uncertainty. 8 AIM-132s that appear out of thin air will cause you a lot of grief.

That said, the majority of Canada’s requirements are not for the dominance of contested airspace. It’s for sovereignty patrols within the Canadian economic zone, including the high-arctic. In other words, planes that need to be seen.

Within that consideration, we have three locations that need about 60 AC each. That’s 180 AC to have enough machines and pilots to keep continuous coverage. So, 3 sqdn x20 of F35s is legitimately a good option. Keep in mind, Russian is developing it’s own Gen-5 AC.

OTOH, I think the remaining 2 sqdn x20 AC per AOR would be much better Gen 4.5 or Gen 4+, like Gripen and Rafale. Gripen is an ambusher, and Rafale is boxer. You can imagine the headaches that a pair of each, watched over by a pair of F35s would pose for any aggressor. It also future-proofs us against geopolitical risks we can’t even guess at right now.

The whole interoperability is a nonsense noise screen. Gripen and F35 both can be fitted with LINK16 for kill-chain / ISR data sharing. Rafale is certified for USN CVN operations, and does LINK16 as well. The interoperability worry is BS.

In summary, if we operate a mixed fleet then to a certain degree, it doesn’t matter how many F35 Canada owns. Any aggressor AC must presume any AC they can see is watched over by at least one they cannot see. But for that to work, we have to have enough to be credible.